At the outset, we declare our interest as Singaporeans who would like to see greater diversity in Parliament and more credible opposition candidates winning at the next election.
It is with this long-term interest that we argue that serious members of the opposition have everything to lose by endorsing Tan Kin Lian. We have to make this clear as, far too often, legitimate and genuine criticism is waved aside as the work of the ‘IBs’.
i have so many TKL screenshots lmao pic.twitter.com/I6go8P2eJR
— dylan (@bongprophet) August 26, 2023
The operative word here, of course, is ‘serious’.
Before we turn to the hypothesis, here’s a quick primer of the Singaporean voter.
The Sophisticated Singaporean Voter
The Singaporean voter is a sophisticated one with an innate sense of justice. With unspoken ease, they see through egos, separate rhetoric from reality, detest acts of bullying, and have a soft spot for the underdog. They rarely vote along ideological lines. They usually vote for someone they feel they can trust or someone whom they know. In some instances, usually in response to political potshots, they also feel compelled to vote for someone to reject the actions or words of the other. Again, their innate sense of justice and injustice comes into play.
They are voters who will not hesitate to punish when necessary.
Sometimes, just by shaking the hands of a candidate and assessing the level of eye contact they are able to maintain, they can sense whether the person who seeks their support is genuine. As the old adage goes, you just know it when you see it.
While the candidate may only be conscious of his direct interactions with a prospective voter, the voter will continue to eyeball a candidate’s mannerism and words even when they are not facing the populace directly.
The Singaporean voter is, however, exceedingly polite. It is rare to find instances of open contempt or slammed doors (those who walk the ground for the opposition will share with you that slammed doors can be largely attributed to fear, rather than contempt). That is to say, even if a prospective voter does not intend to vote for you, he will not tell this to your face. This is why many candidates of smaller opposition parties are often misled by what they call ‘sentiment’ or ‘reception from the ground’. They may get many thumbs up, cheers, and whistles when they ‘walk the ground’ (which usually means monthly hawker visits as opposed to weekly house-to-house visits).
More often than not, these folks get a rude shock when the results of the polls are released.
The Singaporean Voter is extremely discerning
If you would like five recent examples that evidence the sophistication of the Singaporean voter, look at the final tally of votes and circumstances leading up to:-
- How the Singapore People’s Party lost Potoing Pasir SMC in GE 2011 after 27 years;
- How the votes of swing voters and anti-establishment voters were split between Tan Cheng Bock, Tan Jee Say, Tan Kin Lian, and spoilt votes in PE 2011;
- How the non-WP parties fared at the Punggol East By-Election in 2013;
- How the electorate reacted to personalities like Lim Tean, Goh Meng Seng, and Tan Jee Say as opposed to candidates like Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Dr Paul Tambyah, and all of the Workers’ Party candidates in GE 2020; and
- The average vote-share of WP / PSP / SDP and the average vote-share of the other opposition parties in GE 2020.
Each of these examples have sufficient intriguing material for individual articles. For present purposes, it would suffice to say, as Singaporeans do colloquially, “people got eyes to see.”
In Singapore’s political arena, there is no substitute for hard-work, door-knocking, and consistency. There is little room for rabble-rousing and primaddonas. This is especially so in opposition politics. It would not be a stretch to say that a member of the opposition would need to work two or three times harder than a member of the ruling party to win over the hearts and minds of people.
This is why any ground that is painstakingly won by the opposition should be defended fiercely, and valiantly. We must guard against any erosion of ground, especially when such erosion is entirely foreseeable and preventable.
One very recent example of the sophistication of the Singaporean voter is this beautiful response from an aunty to a man who allegedly, and seditiously, argued that we should vote for Tan Kin Lian on the grounds of race.
@cowpehcowboo Auntie gave Tan Kin Lian supporter a lesson on multi-racialism in Singapore #singapore #sgtiktok #pe2023
Endorsing Tan Kin Lian openly does more harm than good for the Opposition’s long-term interests
At the time of writing, no member of the Workers’ Party (led by the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Pritam Singh) and the Singapore Democratic Party (led by Dr Chee Soon Juan), have endorsed or associated themselves with Tan Kin Lian.
For the Workers’ Party, this stance is consistent with their party position that the office of the Elected Presidency should be abolished. This is a position that they have maintained for no less than 3 decades.
You are not being edgy or radical or anti-establishment if you vote for him. You are simply supporting someone who, amongst other things, is a victim-blamer and misogynist. https://t.co/AVCF3dvq8x
— Astafgorilla🔻 (@errant_drifter) August 26, 2023
since people are asking,
here’s the posthttps://t.co/HOSzSCjS1u— dylan (@bongprophet) August 26, 2023
On the morning of 27 August 2023, the founding Secretary-General of the PSP, Dr Tan Cheng Bock, 82, joined Tan Kin Lian for a walkabout in Chinatown.
Many may wonder why I am here today, with my competitors from PE2011.
The answer is simple: today we share a common vision ….. to have an Independent President.
So I am here in my personal capacity as a PE2011 candidate because Singaporeans want transparency and accountability. Having another establishment endorsed candidate as president will not provide this.
He was joined by Mr Tan Jee Say, who is the proposer for Tan Kin Lian’s presidential run.
@todayonline PE2023: Former presidential candidate and Progress Singapore Party’s (PSP) chairman Dr Tan Cheng Bock has come out to endorse presidential candidate Tan Kin Lian as they share a “common vision” on the need for an independent candidate. #sgnews #singapore #singaporepresidentialelection #tankinlian @TODAYOnline @TODAYOnline @TODAYOnline
Other PSP members who were spotted amongst the entourage included Brad Bowyer, who resigned from the PSP following remarks he made comparing differentiated pandemic restrictions for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to the Holocaust.
While the Tan trinity had almost 65% of the valid votes between them in PE 2011, the circumstances today could not be more different. At that time, Dr Tan had no affiliations with the opposition and Mr Tan Jee Say had the support of several credible members of the opposition. The 2011 Presidential Elections also took place a few months after the watershed 2011 General Elections, where the Workers’ Party won Aljunied GRC and the PAP had its worst electoral outing since independence.
In our view, this round, Tan Kin Lian may receive quarter of the valid votes. He may win some support from anti-vaxxers (his Telegram group is frequently visited by the likes of Iris Koh) and other fringe groups who align with his rhetoric. He will also gain some votes from protest voters and those who claim to support other candidates as they do not dare to say in public that they would be voting for Tan Kin Lian. His initial announcement that he would step aside if George Goh qualifies would also attract some who may hold their nose and cast their ballot.
But even with the assembling of the Tanvengers, it is unlikely that he would get anywhere close to the voteshare shared by the trio in 2011.
Votes won in the past are no indicator for votes that you will win in the future. For a start, you can look at how Tan Jee Say fared in GE2015 and GE2020. The same goes for Lim How Doong and Cheo Chai Chen’s performances in GE1997 .
This is especially so in light of a large number of anti-establishment voters who are intending to either spoil their votes or cast a vote for the other two candidates in the race. It is unlikely that any prospective voter for the other two candidates would consider spoiling their votes. Therefore, the spoilt votes would only serve to increase the voteshares of the two other candidates as a proportion of the total valid votes (as spoilt votes are not counted towards the total amount of valid votes).
Some, like the independent journalist Kirsten Han, have shared that they will be spoiling their votes and hope for a significant number to do the same so as to send a signal.
Others, like Sudhir Thomas Vadaketh, the founding editor of JOM, have argued that people should not spoil their votes but vote strategically instead to prevent a scenario where Tan Kin Lian wins.
“Given what we know about Tan Kin Lian (TKL), it’s important to keep him out of office. This is the primary reason to vote. There’s a risk that if he enters office, that he’ll consciously or unconsciously validate forms of behaviour and rhetoric that are beyond the pale, and potentially harmful to society. It’s not so much about the powers he’ll have. It’s about the messaging around whom we choose to put in the Istana…
It’s similar to rhetoric from Lim Tean and the People’s Voice. (Unsurprising that Lim is TKL’s seconder for the presidency.) Their intentions may be noble, in terms of protecting the rights of Singaporeans. But their methods are inflammatory and dangerous, in my opinion. They have helped fuel xenophobia as well as racism towards all Indians.” – Sudhir Thomas Vadaketh
Voters are unlikely to be persuaded by Dr Tan Cheng Bock’s Endorsement
Further, it is unlikely that a significant proportion of voters would decide to vote for Tan Kin Lian on account of Dr Tan’s endorsement.
While Tan Kin Lian’s barrage of Facebook posts and takes on women, race, and “blue-blooded” Singaporeans have been well documented, he has only offered qualified apologies to those who may have been offended. This apology came some hours after his suggestion that the ones who were offended may not have been the pretty ones.
Against this backdrop of indefensible statements, Dr Tan has elected, for reasons best known to himself, with his “comrade” Tan. In a press conference, Dr Tan also characterised the furore over Tan Kin Lian’s social media posts as “gutter politics“.
This is, with respect, a puzzling label especially in light of the fact that the other two candidates, Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Mr Ng Kok Song, have steadfastly declined to weigh in on the plethora of comments made by Tan Kin Lian.
When a journalist from the South China Morning Post asked Dr Tan if he was worried that his decision to endorse Tan Kin Lian would have any negative implications for the PSP at the next General Elections, Dr Tan acknowleged that the decision was not without political risk.
@mothershipsg Tan Cheng Bock on whether he’s worried that his support for Tan Kin Lian would affect PSP’s performance in the next GE. He spoke to the media at a press conference held on Aug. 27, together with Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say. #tiktoksg #sgnews #PE2023
PSP risks erosion of key segments of voters
In the past couple of years, things have been going relatively well for the PSP. Singaporeans have come to like Secretary-General Leong Mun Wai’s tenacity and doggedness in Parliament, and he is building a brand for himself. The PSP’s key talking points, which includes HDB policy and it’s fresh alternative policy proposals, have also garnered a lot of traction amongst Singaporeans, both young and old (the PSP’s Millienial Apartment Scheme is specifically targeted at young Singaporeans).
In West Coast GRC, where the PAP team led by Minister S Iswaran won by the skin of its teeth in the 2020 General Elections with a majority of only 4,662 votes, the PSP stands a good chance of toppling its first GRC if it plays it cards well.
Tan Cheng Bock has more to lose than gain from endorsing Tan Kin Lian. While TCB says this is not in his capacity as PSP leader, many voters in the GE will take it tt way. I don't believe the PSP wd have endorsed TKL. Don't throw away the gd work Mun Wai & Hazel have done so far
— buat merdeka (@BuatMerdeka) August 27, 2023
Unfortunately, Dr Tan’s endorsement risks undoing just that. Although he argues that this endorsement is a personal one which does not reflect the position of the PSP, these technicalities may be lost amidst the optics of seeing one of the three most recognisable faces in PSP throwing his weight behind Tan Kin Lian.
Purely from a political standpoint, those who are inclined to vote for Tan Kin Lian would already vote for the opposition at a general elections. Therefore, it isn’t the case that one can court a new group of prospective voters by backing Tan Kin Lian.
TODAY reported that approximately 7% of voters in the upcoming will be a first-time voter. If the sentiments online are anything to go by, many young Singaporeans have expressed emotions ranging from disgust to contempt when they come across Tan Kin Lian’s impugned posts.
Further, Tan Kin Lian’s comments also risk alienating key segments of the voting population like women, racial minorities, the LGBTQ community, and fair-minded swing voters in general.
A young influencer, Boblet, has made public a message sent to Dr Tan Cheng Bock on Instagram where he said that, following Dr Tan’s endorsement, he cannot look at Dr Tan or PSP the same way again. He ended his post with a chilling reminder that he would not forget this endorsement at the next general election.
@andreanaanna Just my late night thoughts and my makeup is slaying ✨ 💅🏼 #tanchengbock #tankinlian #presidentelection2023 #newssg
♬ Funny video “Carmen Prelude” Arranging weakness(836530) – yo suzuki(akisai)
@brucemathieu8 I don’t believe what I just read! #fyp #foryou #foryoupage #food #foodie #foodlover #dogood #sgtiktok #sgfoodie #foodtiktok #foodsg
Evidently, many did not react well to Tan Cheng Bock descending into the area for the Presidential Elections.
PSP’s performance in GE2020 needs to be improved upon in the next General Election, which may be held in 2024 or 2025. Their NCMPs and members have been working tirelessly inside and outside of Parliament and they cannot afford even the slightest erosion of their voting base.
Most importantly, members of the Opposition should never take goodwill that may have been extended to them by the Singaporean voter in the past for granted.
This is extremely disappointing. SG opposition must stand for values other than 'Anything But PAP' https://t.co/ywMIMhBILf
— sarcastic (@mrknowiteyal) August 27, 2023
They need to be fighting tooth and nail to try and overturn the slim majority of the PAP in West Coast GRC, they need to win more votes from voting groups like women, the youth, and racial and sexual minorities.
While it heartens us that some within the PSP have expressed strong personal reservations about Tan Kin Lian, we fear that the potentially reckless actions of some can risk undoing the good work and ground painstakingly gained over the past half a decade or so.
The PSP cannot repeat the mistakes of the National Solidarity Party in 2011. The NSP, in 2011, performed brilliantly at the polls in 2011 with a stellar slate of candidates which included the likes of Hazel Poa, Tony Tan, Nicole Seah, and Jeannette-Chong Aruldoss. However, due to poor leadership and the loss of several key figures, the NSP flopped at the polls in GE 2015 and never recovered since.
Similarly, where margins are razor-thin at an election – two recent examples come to mind, Potong Pasir SMC in GE2011 and Aljunied GRC in 2015 – it does not necessarily follow that similar margins can be expected. In both instances, the next election saw winning margins of 10%.
The stars are starting to align for the PSP, and notwithstanding substantial gerry-mandering, West Coast GRC will be for PSP to lose at the next General Election. Until then, it needs to run a tight and disciplined ship and avoid situations of potential political risk like the plague. There is no room for arrogance, complacency, and any rhetoric that insults the intelligence of the voter.
https://twitter.com/xlearth616/status/1695706897679274331
It would have cost nothing for Dr Tan Cheng Bock to sit this election out, as the leaders of the WP and the SDP have done.
While the General Elections are still some time away but incidents like this do have the potential to stay in the minds of the people, and the media. Just look at how incidents relating to Dr Chee that occurred almost 3 decades ago are still being dredged up every now and then.
lol PSP reputation go down the drain the only good person in psp is hazel poa. Hope she goes to WP. https://t.co/zaWNjbAmuX
— blossom³⁹ ʟsʀғᴍ-ᵒᵗ⁵ 🍉 (@justcovering) August 27, 2023
While, individual PSP members may harbour personal views which may differ from the views that Dr Tan has publicly expressed, we understand that they may not be able to express them due to the constrains of conventions and norms within political parties.
If there is something that we are missing in our analysis, we would happily stand corrected. However, as things are, and based on the responses from the ground, this incident may weigh on the minds of voters at PSP’s next electoral outing.
It is our sincere and genuine hope that credible members of the Opposition get a chance to be elected representatives of the people. This is a path that requires careful political strategy, discipline, and hardwork. This is why it pains us deeply when entirely preventable mistakes that can erode precious voter bases are made.
Whatever our political associations may be, we must stand true to our values and principles, and stand up for all Singaporeans. Our actions must always be guided by love and loyalty to Singapore.
Even if it is politically beneficial to do so, we should judiciously guard against association with rhetoric that is not grounded in compassion and respect.
Above all, it is critical that we are on the right side of history.
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